TREDEGAR CORP
TGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
TREDEGAR CORP earns about -1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.43 and $8.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $57.8M1 | $28.5M2 | −$105.9M3 | −$64.6M3 | $33.5M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $70.6M4 | −$20.8M5 | $24M6 | $25.5M6 | $33M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $27.4M7 | $36.9M8 | $26.4M9 | $14.3M9 | $17.2M9 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $43.2M4 | −$57.7M5 | −$2.45M6 | $11.2M6 | $15.7M6 |
| Total debt | $73M10 | $274M11 | $126.3M12 | $61.9M13 | $35M13 |
| Cash & equivalents | $30.5M14 | $19.2M15 | $9.66M16 | $7.06M17 | $6.73M17 |
| Diluted shares | 33.7M | 33.8M | 34.1M | 34.3M | 34.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $62.34 of net worth that earned you $9.64 and generated $4.53 of cash last year, against $10.09 of debt.
It earned about -1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 52% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.43 and $8.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$11.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$11.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$28.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.78 |
| Base | 0.0% | $3.78 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $4.89 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000850429-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000850429-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016665 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000850429-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000850429-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016665 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000850429-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000850429-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016665 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000850429-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000850429-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000850429-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016665 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000850429-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000850429-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000850429-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016665 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)