MeritValue

TFS Financial CORP

TFSLdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TFS Financial CORP earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.95 and $6.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$389.4M1$409.3M2$611.9M3$734.1M3$763.2M3
Net income$81M4$74.6M5$75.3M6$79.6M6$91M6
Operating cash flow$83.2M7$38.9M8$90.7M9$88.6M9$82.4M9
Capital expenditure$1.34M10$2.7M11$5.1M12$3.06M12$11.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$81.8M7$36.2M8$85.6M9$85.5M9$71M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$488.3M13$369.6M14$466.7M15$463.7M16$429.4M16
Diluted shares278.6M278.7M278.6M279.1M279.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$67.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.54
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $67.7 of net worth that earned you $3.25 and generated $2.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 13%FY23 23%FY24 21%FY25 22%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.95 and $6.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.5%
  • fcfBase$85.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.5%
  • fcfBase$85.5M
Earnings Power Value
$2.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$79.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.9
Base1.5%$6.2
Bull6.5%$7.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001381668-23-000092 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001381668-24-000142 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001381668-25-000106 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001381668-23-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001381668-24-000142 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001381668-25-000106 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001381668-23-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001381668-24-000142 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001381668-25-000106 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001381668-23-000092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001381668-24-000142 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001381668-25-000106 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001381668-22-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001381668-23-000092 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001381668-24-000142 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001381668-25-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)