MeritValue

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.

TFPMdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 40% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$150.4M1$151.9M2$204M3$269M4$388.7M4
Net income$45.5M5$55.1M6$36.3M7−$23.1M8$240M8
Operating cash flow$120M9$118.4M10$154.1M11$213.5M12$312.8M12
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$40.7M13$71.1M14$17.4M15$36.2M15$71.3M15
Diluted shares148.0M155.7M201.4M201.2M206.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$99.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.62
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $99.03 of net worth that earned you $11.62 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 5%FY23 2%FY24 -0%FY25 12%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+40% shares · 5y

Share count is up 40% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$2.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039251 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039990 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003977 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036188 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039251 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039990 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003977 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036188 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-039251 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039990 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003977 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036188 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-039990 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003977 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-036188 (CashAndCashEquivalents)