MeritValue

Triumph Financial, Inc.

TFINdata completeness 75%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Triumph Financial, Inc. earns about 32% on invested capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $17.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$387.6M1$419.2M2$422.4M3$422.5M3$430.5M3
Net income$113M4$102.3M5$41.1M6$16.1M6$25.4M6
Operating cash flow$137M7$80.8M8$60M9$58.5M9$67.1M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$27.1M10————
Cash & equivalents$383.2M11$408.2M12$286.6M13$330.1M14$248.5M14
Diluted shares25.3M25.0M23.6M23.8M23.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$394.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.63
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $394.91 of net worth that earned you $10.63 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
32% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 24%FY23 14%FY24 52%FY25 43%

It earned an average 32% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$17.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$41.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$28.75
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004458 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004879 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001539638-26-000007 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004458 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004879 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001539638-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004458 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004879 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001539638-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-002504 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003699 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-004458 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-004879 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001539638-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)