MeritValue

TFI International Inc.

TFIIdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

TFI International Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.98 and $119.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.22B1$8.81B2$7.52B3$8.4B4$7.88B4
Net income$754.4M5$823.2M6$504.9M7$422.5M8$310.6M8
Operating cash flow$855.4M9$971.6M10$1.01B11$1.06B12$977.8M12
Capital expenditure$268.7M13$350.8M14$361.6M15$392.8M16$273.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$586.7M9$620.8M10$652.3M11$669.8M12$704.6M12
Total debt$1.61B17$1.32B18$1.88B19$2.4B19$2.58B19
Cash & equivalents$19.3M20$147.1M21$335.6M22$022$210.2M22
Diluted shares92.2M86.5M84.4M84.4M84.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$317.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$83.47
Debt you’d be carrying
$305.42

10 shares is a claim on $317.22 of net worth that earned you $36.79 and generated $83.47 of cash last year, against $305.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 23%FY23 12%FY24 8%FY25 6%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.98 and $119.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$119.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.5%
  • fcfBase$669.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$109.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.5%
  • fcfBase$669.8M
Earnings Power Value
$61.98
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$504.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $109.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$85.33
Base4.5%$109.9
Bull9.5%$142.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-046368 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016307 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023200 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054689 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-046368 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016307 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023200 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054689 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-046368 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016307 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023200 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054689 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-046368 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016307 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023200 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054689 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016307 (Borrowings)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023200 (Borrowings)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054689 (Borrowings)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016307 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023200 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-054689 (CashAndCashEquivalents)