TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP

TFCdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRUIST FINANCIAL CORP earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.22 and $84.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.8B1$16.6B2$24.5B3$25.1B3$24.5B3
Net income$6.44B4$6.27B5−$1.05B6$4.84B6$5.31B6
Operating cash flow$7.89B7$11.1B8$8.63B9$2.16B9$5.74B9
Capital expenditure$442M10$564M10
Free cash flow (derived)$7.45B7$10.5B8
Total debt$41.2B11$66.6B12$63.7B13$64.2B14$69.8B14
Cash & equivalents$20.3B15$21.4B16$30.6B16$39.8B16$36.4B16
Diluted shares1.35B1.34B1.33B1.33B1.30B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$500.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.74
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying
$535.83

10 shares is a claim on $500.41 of net worth that earned you $40.74 last year, against $535.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 7%FY23 8%FY24 12%FY25 18%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 69% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.22 and $84.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$84.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$7.45B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$75.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$7.45B
Earnings Power Value
$42.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.31B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $75.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$56.05
Base5.0%$75.83
Bull10.0%$99.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000092230-24-000010 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000092230-25-000020 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000092230-26-000030 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000092230-24-000010 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000092230-25-000020 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000092230-26-000030 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000092230-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000092230-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000092230-26-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000092230-23-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000092230-23-000034 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000092230-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000092230-25-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000092230-26-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000092230-22-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000092230-26-000030 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)