MeritValue

TEREX CORP

TEXdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TEREX CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $46.89 and $262.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.89B1$4.42B2$5.15B3$5.13B3$5.42B3
Net income$220.9M4$300M5$518M6$335M6$221M6
Operating cash flow$293.4M7$261M8$459M9$326M9$440M9
Capital expenditure$59.7M10$110M11$127M12$137M12$118M12
Free cash flow (derived)$233.7M7$151M8$332M9$189M9$322M9
Total debt$676.2M13$779.2M14$603.5M15$2.6B16$2.6B17
Cash & equivalents$266.9M18$304.1M19$371M20$388M21$772M21
Diluted shares70.9M69.4M68.3M67.6M66.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$315.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$48.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$391.86

10 shares is a claim on $315.99 of net worth that earned you $33.33 and generated $48.57 of cash last year, against $391.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 21%FY23 30%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 284% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $46.89 and $262.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$262.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$322M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$130.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$322M
Earnings Power Value
$46.89
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$300M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.66
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $130.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.85
Base20.0%$130.8
Bull20.0%$130.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097216-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097216-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097216-26-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097216-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097216-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097216-26-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097216-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097216-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097216-26-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097216-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097216-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097216-26-000035 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097216-22-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097216-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097216-24-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097216-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0000097216-26-000035 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000097216-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000097216-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000097216-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000097216-26-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)