MeritValue

TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD

TEVAdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.59 and $19.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.9B1$14.9B2$15.8B3$16.5B3$17.3B3
Net income$417M4−$2.45B5−$559M6−$1.64B6$1.41B6
Operating cash flow$798M7$1.59B8$1.37B9$1.25B9$1.65B9
Capital expenditure$562M10$548M10$526M11$498M11$501M11
Free cash flow (derived)$236M7$1.04B8$842M9$749M9$1.15B9
Total debt$2.83B12$4.2B13$3.32B14$3.54B15$3.62B15
Cash & equivalents$2.17B16$2.8B17$3.23B18$3.3B18$3.56B18
Diluted shares1.11B1.11B1.12B1.13B1.16B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$68.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.87
Debt you’d be carrying
$31.11

10 shares is a claim on $68.01 of net worth that earned you $12.12 and generated $9.87 of cash last year, against $31.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 -19%FY23 4%FY24 -4%FY25 27%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 28% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.59 and $19.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.7%
  • fcfBase$842M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.7%
  • fcfBase$842M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$13.61
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.29
Base9.7%$15.59
Bull14.7%$19.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-031005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-020826 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-034532 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-031005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-020826 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-034532 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-031005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-020826 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-034532 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-031250 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-034532 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-031250 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-031005 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-020826 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-034532 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-031005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-020826 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-034532 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)