MeritValue

Tenable Holdings, Inc.

TENBdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Tenable Holdings, Inc. earns about -20% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 13% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $59.44 and $107.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$541.1M1$683.2M2$798.7M3$900M3$999.4M3
Net income−$46.7M4−$92.2M5−$78.3M6−$36.3M6−$36.1M6
Operating cash flow$96.8M7$131.2M8$149.9M9$217.5M9$266.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.89M10$9.36M11$1.7M12$4.25M12$12.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$92.9M7$121.8M8$148.2M9$213.2M9$254.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$278M13$300.9M14$237.1M15$328.6M16$187.8M16
Diluted shares106.4M111.3M115.4M118.8M120.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $27.17 of net worth that earned you −$3.01 and generated $21.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-20% avg · 5y
FY21 -22%FY22 -34%FY23 -23%FY24 -9%FY25 -11%

It earned about -20% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+13% shares · 5y

Share count is up 13% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $59.44 and $107.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$107.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$59.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$213.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $59.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.92
Base20.0%$59.44
Bull20.0%$59.44

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660280-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660280-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660280-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660280-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660280-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660280-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660280-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660280-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660280-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660280-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660280-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660280-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001660280-23-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001660280-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001660280-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001660280-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)