MeritValue

TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD

TENdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 51% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $61.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$546.1M1$860.4M2$889.6M3$804.1M3$798.7M3
Net income−$151.4M4$204.2M5$300.2M6$176.2M6$160.9M6
Operating cash flow$53.1M7$288.5M8$395.3M9$307.7M9$297.6M9
Capital expenditure$5.62M10$301.6M11$163.6M12$489.6M12$302.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$47.5M7−$13M8$231.6M9−$181.9M9−$4.53M9
Total debt$2.75B13$2.82B14$2.81B15$3.2B16$3.56B16
Cash & equivalents$117.2M17$304.4M18$372M19$343.4M19$293.3M19
Diluted shares19.7M28.2M29.5M29.5M29.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$611.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$54.1
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,198.04

10 shares is a claim on $611.8 of net worth that earned you $54.1 and generated −$1.52 of cash last year, against $1,198.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 -12%FY22 14%FY23 19%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+51% shares · 5y

Share count is up 51% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 30% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$61.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$176.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.27
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-102899 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079101 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144027 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-102899 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079101 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-102899 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079101 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-102899 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079101 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144027 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-094132 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-102899 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079101 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-102899 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-079101 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-144027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)