MeritValue

Tempus AI, Inc.

TEMdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Tempus AI, Inc. earns about -651% on equity, but has diluted owners by 176% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$320.7M1$531.8M2$693.4M2$1.27B2
Net income−$289.8M3−$214.1M4−$705.8M4−$245M4
Operating cash flow−$168.2M5−$214.3M6−$189M6−$218.1M6
Capital expenditure$18.4M7$34.6M8$22.1M8$21M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$186.6M5−$248.9M6−$211.2M6−$239.1M6
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$302.9M9$165.8M10$341M10$604.8M10
Diluted shares63,03263,306119,849174,264

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28,194.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14,060.74
Free cash flow it threw off
−$13,722.8
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28,194.35 of net worth that earned you −$14,060.74 and generated −$13,722.8 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-651% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -1253%FY25 -50%

It earned an average -651% on equity over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+176% shares · 4y

Share count is up 176% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025603 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066961 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025603 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066961 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025603 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066961 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025603 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066961 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-025603 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-066961 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)