MeritValue

TE Connectivity plc

TELdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TE Connectivity plc earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $78.36 and $467.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$14.9B1$16.3B2$16B3$15.8B3$17.3B3
Net income$2.26B4$2.43B5$1.91B6$3.19B6$1.84B6
Operating cash flow$2.68B7$2.47B8$3.13B9$3.48B9$4.14B9
Capital expenditure$690M10$768M11$732M12$680M12$936M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.99B7$1.7B8$2.4B9$2.8B9$3.2B9
Total debt$4.09B13$4.21B14$4.21B15$4.2B16$5.69B16
Cash & equivalents$1.2B17$1.09B18$1.66B19$1.32B20$1.26B20
Diluted shares333.0M325.0M317.0M309.0M299.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$420.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$61.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$107.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$190.43

10 shares is a claim on $420.9 of net worth that earned you $61.61 and generated $107.12 of cash last year, against $190.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 18%FY23 14%FY24 18%FY25 11%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $78.36 and $467.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$467.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$2.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$267.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.1%
  • fcfBase$2.8B
Earnings Power Value
$78.36
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.26B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $267.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$118.81
Base18.1%$267.97
Bull20.0%$290.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-24 · accession 0001558370-23-018833 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015227 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001104659-25-109150 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-24 · accession 0001558370-23-018833 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015227 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001104659-25-109150 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-24 · accession 0001558370-23-018833 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015227 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001104659-25-109150 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-24 · accession 0001558370-23-018833 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-24-015227 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001104659-25-109150 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-24 · accession 0001558370-22-017931 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018833 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001558370-24-015227 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001104659-25-109150 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-24 · accession 0001558370-22-017931 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001558370-23-018833 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0001558370-24-015227 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0001104659-25-109150 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)