MeritValue

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc.

TECXdata completeness 75%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

Tectonic Therapeutic, Inc. earns about -47% on equity, but has diluted owners by 42656% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$119.1M1−$105.9M2−$42.8M3−$58M4−$74.2M4
Operating cash flow−$98M5−$97.2M6−$40.7M7−$59.1M8−$60.1M8
Capital expenditure$2.46M9$267,00010$279,00011$156,00012$208,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$100.5M5−$97.5M6−$41M7−$59.2M8−$60.3M8
Total debt$15M13$15M14———
Cash & equivalents$189.6M15$92.6M16$28.8M17$141.2M18$253.8M18
Diluted shares42,85443.7M1.3M8.5M18.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$137.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$40.47
Free cash flow it threw off
−$32.9
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $137.17 of net worth that earned you −$40.47 and generated −$32.9 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-47% avg · 5y
FY21 -70%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 -41%FY25 -30%

It earned an average -47% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+42656% shares · 5y

Share count is up 42656% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009527 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031635 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042648 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009527 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031635 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042648 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009527 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031635 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042648 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564590-22-010895 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009527 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-009527 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031635 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-042648 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-076793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)