MeritValue

Atlassian Corp

TEAMdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Atlassian Corp earns about -93% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $182.06 and $328.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.09B1$2.8B2$3.53B3$4.36B3$5.22B3
Net income−$579M4−$519.5M5−$486.8M6−$300.5M6−$256.7M6
Operating cash flow$790M7$821M8$868.1M9$1.45B9$1.46B9
Capital expenditure$31.5M10$70.6M11$25.8M12$33.1M12$44.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$758.4M7$750.5M8$842.3M9$1.42B9$1.42B9
Total debt—$999.4M13$999.6M14$985.9M15$987.7M15
Cash & equivalents$919.2M16$1.39B17$2.1B18$2.18B18$2.51B18
Diluted shares249.7M253.3M256.3M259.1M261.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$54.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$37.73

10 shares is a claim on $51.4 of net worth that earned you −$9.81 and generated $54.07 of cash last year, against $37.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-93% avg · 5y
FY21 -185%FY22 -159%FY23 -74%FY24 -29%FY25 -19%

It earned about -93% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $182.06 and $328.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$328.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.42B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$182.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.42B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $182.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$83.06
Base20.0%$182.06
Bull20.0%$182.06

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001650372-23-000040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001650372-24-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001650372-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001650372-23-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001650372-24-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001650372-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001650372-23-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001650372-24-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001650372-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001650372-23-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001650372-24-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001650372-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001650372-23-000040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001650372-24-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001650372-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001650372-23-000040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001650372-24-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001650372-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)