MeritValue

TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC

TDYdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $179.1 and $1,254.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.61B1$5.46B2$5.64B3$5.67B3$6.12B3
Net income$445.3M4$788.6M5$885.7M6$819.2M6$894.8M6
Operating cash flow$824.6M7$486.8M8$836.1M9$1.19B9$1.19B9
Capital expenditure$101.6M10$92.6M11$114.9M12$83.7M12$117.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$723M7$394.2M8$721.2M9$1.11B9$1.07B9
Total debt$8.2B13$7.84B14$6.49B15$5.3B16$4.95B16
Cash & equivalents$474.7M17$638.1M18$648.3M19$649.8M20$352.4M20
Diluted shares44.3M47.7M47.9M47.6M47.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,218.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$188.78
Free cash flow it threw off
$226.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,044.47

10 shares is a claim on $2,218.12 of net worth that earned you $188.78 and generated $226.58 of cash last year, against $1,044.47 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 3%FY23 6%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $179.1 and $1,254.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,254.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$641.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
Earnings Power Value
$179.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$819.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$306.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $641.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$226.72
Base20.0%$641.73
Bull20.0%$641.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001094285-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001094285-25-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001094285-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001094285-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001094285-25-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001094285-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001094285-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001094285-25-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001094285-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001094285-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001094285-25-000053 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001094285-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001094285-23-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001094285-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001094285-25-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001094285-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001094285-23-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001094285-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001094285-25-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001094285-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)