TIDEWATER INC
TDWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileTIDEWATER INC earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 122878% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.97 and $286.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $371M1 | $647.7M2 | $1.01B3 | $1.35B3 | $1.35B3 |
| Net income | −$129M4 | −$21.7M5 | $97.2M6 | $180.7M6 | $334.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $15M7 | $40.2M8 | $104.2M9 | $282.5M9 | $379.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $8.95M10 | $16.6M11 | $31.6M12 | $27.6M12 | $25.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $6.06M7 | $23.6M8 | $72.6M9 | $254.9M9 | $353.3M9 |
| Total debt | $167.9M13 | $169M14 | $734.4M15 | $1.28B16 | $1.32B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $149M17 | $164.2M18 | $274.4M19 | $324.9M20 | $578.8M20 |
| Diluted shares | 41,009 | 44.1M | 52.9M | 53.1M | 50.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $270.74 of net worth that earned you $66.36 and generated $70.06 of cash last year, against $262.72 of debt.
It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 122878% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 689% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.97 and $286.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$254.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$254.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$97.2M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $57.42 |
| Base | 20.0% | $149.99 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $149.99 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006108 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006391 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006108 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005487 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006391 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006391 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006108 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005487 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006391 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004829 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006108 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005487 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006391 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004829 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-006108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005487 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-006391 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)