MeritValue

ThredUp Inc.

TDUPdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

ThredUp Inc. earns about -49% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$251.8M1$288.4M2$258.5M3$260M4$310.8M4
Net income−$63.2M5−$92.3M6−$71.2M7−$77M8−$20.2M8
Operating cash flow−$35M9−$52.1M10−$22.6M10$4.9M11$10.7M11
Capital expenditure$19.8M12$43.3M13$13.1M14$6.58M15$10.5M15
Free cash flow (derived)−$54.8M9−$95.4M10−$35.7M10−$1.68M11$180,00011
Total debt$35.3M16$29.7M17$25.8M18$22M19$18.2M19
Cash & equivalents$84.6M20$38M21$54.3M22$31.9M23$38.6M23
Diluted shares77.1M99.8M104.9M112.0M121.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$4.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.66
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.01
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.49

10 shares is a claim on $4.86 of net worth that earned you −$1.66 and generated $0.01 of cash last year, against $1.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-49% avg · 5y
FY21 -31%FY22 -55%FY23 -52%FY24 -68%FY25 -41%

It earned an average -49% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 49% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001484778-23-000057 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001484778-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001484778-25-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001484778-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001484778-23-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001484778-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001484778-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001484778-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001484778-23-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001484778-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001484778-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001484778-23-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001484778-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001484778-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001484778-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001484778-23-000057 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001484778-24-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001484778-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001484778-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001484778-23-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001484778-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001484778-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001484778-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)