MeritValue

Teladoc Health, Inc.

TDOCdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Teladoc Health, Inc. earns about -244% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.71 and $89.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.03B1$2.41B2$2.6B3$2.57B3$2.53B3
Net income−$428.8M4−$13.7B5−$220.4M6−$1B6−$200.3M6
Operating cash flow$194M7$189.3M8$350M9$293.7M9$294.4M9
Capital expenditure$8.53M10$16.5M11$11.5M12$10.8M12$8.89M12
Free cash flow (derived)$185.5M7$172.8M8$338.6M9$282.9M9$285.5M9
Total debt$013————
Cash & equivalents$893.5M14$918.2M15$1.12B16$1.3B17$781.1M17
Diluted shares156.9M161.5M164.6M170.6M176.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$78.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.37
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.2
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $78.63 of net worth that earned you −$11.37 and generated $16.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-244% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 -776%FY23 -13%FY24 -397%FY25 -31%

It earned about -244% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.71 and $89.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$89.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth18.2%
  • fcfBase$285.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$53.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth18.2%
  • fcfBase$285.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years18.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $53.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$27.58
Base18.2%$53.71
Bull20.0%$57.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 18.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477449-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477449-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477449-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477449-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477449-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477449-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477449-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477449-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477449-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477449-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477449-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477449-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-22-002260 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002559 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477449-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477449-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477449-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)