MeritValue

TransDigm Group INC

TDGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TransDigm Group INC earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $231.11 and $1,403.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.8B1$5.43B2$6.59B2$7.94B2$8.83B3
Net income$680M4$866M5$1.3B6$1.71B6$2.07B6
Operating cash flow$913M7$948M8$1.38B9$2.05B9$2.04B9
Capital expenditure$105M10$119M11$139M12$165M12$222M12
Free cash flow (derived)$808M7$829M8$1.24B9$1.88B9$1.82B9
Total debt$19.9B13$19.5B14$19.5B15$24.5B16$29.4B16
Cash & equivalents$4.79B17$3B18$3.47B19$6.26B20$2.81B20
Diluted shares58.4M58.2M57.2M57.8M58.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$1,664.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$356.36
Free cash flow it threw off
$312.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$5,054.12

10 shares is a claim on −$1,664.26 of net worth that earned you $356.36 and generated $312.03 of cash last year, against $5,054.12 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 0%FY23 3%FY24 6%FY25 5%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 48% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $231.11 and $1,403.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,403.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.82B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$560.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.82B
Earnings Power Value
$231.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $560.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$11.35
Base20.0%$560.16
Bull20.0%$560.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001260221-23-000081 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001260221-24-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001260221-25-000081 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001260221-23-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001260221-24-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001260221-25-000081 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001260221-23-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001260221-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001260221-25-000081 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001260221-23-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001260221-24-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001260221-25-000081 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001260221-22-000065 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001260221-23-000081 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001260221-24-000083 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001260221-25-000081 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001260221-22-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001260221-23-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001260221-24-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001260221-25-000081 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)