MeritValue

USA TODAY Co., Inc.

TDAYdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

USA TODAY Co., Inc. earns about 1% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.21B1$2.95B2$2.66B3$2.51B3$2.3B3
Net income−$135M4−$78M5−$27.8M6−$26.4M6$1.75M6
Operating cash flow$127.5M7$40.8M8$94.6M9$100.3M9$114.4M9
Capital expenditure$39.6M10$45.4M11$38.1M12$49.5M12$51.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$87.9M7−$4.6M8$56.5M9$50.8M9$62.9M9
Total debt$2.53B13$2.38B14$2.15B15$2.23B16$1.98B16
Cash & equivalents$130.8M17$94.3M18$100.2M19$106.3M19$90.2M19
Diluted shares134.8M136.9M139.6M142.5M146.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$10.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$135.48

10 shares is a claim on $10.63 of net worth that earned you $0.12 and generated $4.31 of cash last year, against $135.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 4%FY24 -3%FY25 -0%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 22% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$10.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$56.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$56.5M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$0.49
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579684-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579684-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579684-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579684-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579684-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579684-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579684-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579684-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579684-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579684-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579684-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579684-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579684-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579684-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579684-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001579684-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001579684-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001579684-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001579684-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)