MeritValue

TScan Therapeutics, Inc.

TCRXdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

TScan Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -63% on equity, but has diluted owners by 1013% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.1M1$13.5M2$21M3$2.82M4$10.3M4
Net income−$48.6M5−$66.2M6−$89.2M7−$127.5M8−$129.8M8
Operating cash flow−$48.7M9−$66.5M10−$61.4M11−$110.8M12−$135.3M12
Capital expenditure$9.94M13$4.23M14$3.15M15$3.83M16$4.41M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$58.6M9−$70.7M10−$64.5M11−$114.6M12−$139.7M12
Total debt—$58.6M17$60.1M18$64.1M19$65.1M19
Cash & equivalents$161.4M20$120M21$133.4M22$178.7M23$152.4M23
Diluted shares11.7M24.0M65.6M112.0M129.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.49
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.77
Debt you’d be carrying
$5.01

10 shares is a claim on $9.49 of net worth that earned you −$10 and generated −$10.77 of cash last year, against $5.01 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-63% avg · 5y
FY21 -30%FY22 -67%FY23 -59%FY24 -53%FY25 -105%

It earned an average -63% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1013% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1013% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006589 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026875 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-089884 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006589 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026875 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-089884 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006589 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026875 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-089884 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006589 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026875 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-089884 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026875 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-089884 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-006589 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-026875 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-089884 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)