Trip.com Group Ltd
TCOMdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileTrip.com Group Ltd earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.73 and $224.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.14B1 | $2.91B2 | $6.28B3 | $7.31B4 | $8.94B5 |
| Net income | −$86M6 | $206M7 | $1.4B8 | $2.34B9 | $4.76B10 |
| Operating cash flow | $388M11 | $380M12 | $3.1B13 | $2.69B14 | $2.06B15 |
| Capital expenditure | $89M16 | $72M17 | $85M18 | $81M19 | $114M20 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $299M11 | $308M12 | $3.01B13 | $2.61B14 | $1.95B15 |
| Total debt | $8B21 | $6.65B22 | $6.33B23 | $5.42B24 | $4.4B25 |
| Cash & equivalents | $3.11B26 | $2.47B27 | $5.86B28 | $6.64B29 | $5.7B30 |
| Diluted shares | 634.1M | 657.1M | 671.1M | 688.7M | 698.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $349.77 of net worth that earned you $68.19 and generated $27.85 of cash last year, against $62.99 of debt.
It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.73 and $224.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$2.61B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$2.61B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.4B
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $55.28 |
| Base | 20.0% | $123.75 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $123.75 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-123585 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080422 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-122196 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-123585 (NetIncomeLoss)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-122196 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-078429 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-183379 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-123585 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-123585 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080422 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-122196 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-078429 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
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- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-123585 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
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- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-122196 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-078429 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-183379 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-123585 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-080422 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
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