MeritValue

TRANSCONTINENTAL REALTY INVESTORS INC

TCIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TRANSCONTINENTAL REALTY INVESTORS INC earns about 13% on equity, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$40.8M1$36.7M2$49.9M3$47.1M3$49.1M3
Net income$9.4M4$468.3M5$5.94M6$5.86M6$13.8M6
Operating cash flow−$11M7−$45.4M8−$31.1M9$1.31M9−$2.89M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$176.8M10$184.5M11$179.1M12$181.9M13$210.8M13
Cash & equivalents$50.7M14$113.4M15$36.7M15$19.9M15$14.1M15
Diluted shares8.6M8.6M8.6M8.6M8.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$980.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.98
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$244.03

10 shares is a claim on $980.09 of net worth that earned you $15.98 last year, against $244.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
13% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 57%FY23 1%FY24 1%FY25 2%

It earned an average 13% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.4
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000733590-24-000003 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000733590-25-000004 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000733590-26-000004 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000733590-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000733590-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000733590-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000733590-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000733590-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000733590-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000733590-23-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000733590-24-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000733590-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000733590-26-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000733590-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000733590-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)