Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.
TCBXdata completeness 63%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. earns about 117% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 115% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.8 and $46.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $11.4M1 | $18.7M2 | $33.4M3 | $47.7M3 | $66.3M3 |
| Operating cash flow | $4.58M4 | $21.8M5 | $39.1M6 | $35.1M6 | $50.8M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.62M7 | $12.2M8 | $3.44M8 | $1.77M8 | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$1.04M4 | $9.6M5 | $35.6M6 | $33.4M6 | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $326.7M9 | $329.9M10 | $296.9M11 | $371.2M12 | $175.2M12 |
| Diluted shares | 8.1M | 13.8M | 16.9M | 17.1M | 17.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $303.84 of net worth that earned you $37.93 last year.
It earned about 117% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 115% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.8 and $46.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$33.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$33.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$33.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $37.3 |
| Base | 5.0% | $43.91 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $51.81 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027956 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033724 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-091656 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027956 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033724 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-091656 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027956 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033724 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-008204 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027956 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-033724 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-091656 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)