MeritValue

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.

TCBSdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.88 and $5.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$10.5M1$12.6M2$19M3$22.5M4$22.5M4
Net income$518,0005$1.75M6−$733,0007−$1.31M8$2.84M8
Operating cash flow$1.76M9$3.13M10$2.29M11$1.94M12$1.37M12
Capital expenditure$137,00013$393,00014$5.6M15$1.2M16$394,00016
Free cash flow (derived)$1.62M9$2.74M10−$3.31M11$740,00012$973,00012
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$21.9M17$8.93M18$13.1M19$13.3M19$6.45M19
Diluted shares3.0M3.0M3.1M3.0M2.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$188.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.41
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $188.26 of net worth that earned you $9.95 and generated $3.41 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 8%FY23 14%FY24 17%FY25 30%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.88 and $5.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$740,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$740,000
Earnings Power Value
$1.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$518,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.58
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.96
Base0.0%$5.96
Bull5.0%$6.86

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005134 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004105 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003827 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034560 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005134 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004105 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003827 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034560 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005134 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003827 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034560 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005134 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003827 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034560 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004105 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003827 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034560 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)