TRICO BANCSHARES /

TCBKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TRICO BANCSHARES / earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.11 and $60.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$43.9M1$49.8M2$50.1M3$51.3M3$53.4M3
Net income$117.7M4$125.4M5$117.4M6$114.9M6$121.6M6
Operating cash flow$132.2M7$162.9M8$138.9M9$109.7M9$133.3M9
Capital expenditure$3.2M10$3.62M11$4.89M12$4.56M12$5.36M12
Free cash flow (derived)$129M7$159.3M8$134M9$105.2M9$127.9M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$768.4M13$107.2M14$98.7M15$145M16$157M16
Diluted shares29.9M32.7M33.4M33.2M32.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$404.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$37
Free cash flow it threw off
$38.94
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $404.2 of net worth that earned you $37 and generated $38.94 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 52%FY22 14%FY23 17%FY24 33%FY25 32%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.11 and $60.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$56.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$127.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$127.9M
Earnings Power Value
$37.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$117.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$58.01
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$60.41
Base0.0%$60.41
Bull5.0%$73.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000356171-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000356171-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000356171-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000356171-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000356171-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000356171-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000356171-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000356171-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000356171-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000356171-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000356171-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000356171-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000356171-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000356171-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000356171-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000356171-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)