MeritValue

TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX

TCBIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TEXAS CAPITAL BANCSHARES INC/TX earns about 76% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.05 and $142.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$876.5M1$1.14B2$1.63B3$1.73B3$1.77B3
Net income$253.9M4$332.5M5$189.1M6$77.5M6$330.2M6
Operating cash flow$657.3M7$148M8$373.7M9$480.1M9$360.2M9
Capital expenditure$4.13M10$11.3M11$16.4M12$64.8M12$12.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$653.2M7$136.7M8$357.4M9$415.2M9$347.6M9
Total debt$928.7M13$931.4M14$859.1M15$660.3M16$620.6M16
Cash & equivalents$7.95B17$5.01B18$3.24B18$3.19B18$2.1B18
Diluted shares51.1M51.0M48.6M47.0M46.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$787.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$75.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$134.54

10 shares is a claim on $787.25 of net worth that earned you $71.59 and generated $75.35 of cash last year, against $134.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
76% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 91%FY24 87%FY25 52%

It earned about 76% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−10% shares · 5y

Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 33% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.05 and $142.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$134.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$357.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$142.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$357.4M
Earnings Power Value
$57.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$253.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$109.67
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $142.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$142.74
Base0.0%$142.74
Bull5.0%$169.54

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001077428-24-000040 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001077428-25-000036 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001077428-26-000010 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001077428-24-000040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001077428-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001077428-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001077428-24-000040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001077428-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001077428-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001077428-24-000040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001077428-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001077428-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001077428-23-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001077428-24-000040 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001077428-25-000036 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001077428-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001077428-25-000036 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001077428-26-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)