MeritValue

Token Cat Ltd

TCdata completeness 75%8 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Token Cat Ltd earns about -179% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 86% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$56.1M1$26.6M2$22.9M3$6.74M4$847,0005
Net income−$16M6−$24.1M7−$11.7M8−$25.8M9$323,00010
Operating cash flow−$14.5M11−$15.9M12−$10.6M13−$4.76M14−$25.2M15
Capital expenditure$152,00016$31,00017—$3,00018—
Free cash flow (derived)−$14.6M11−$15.9M12—−$4.76M14—
Total debt$1.1M19$683,00020$2.63M21$5.72M22—
Cash & equivalents$9.2M23$9.85M24$1.31M25$863,00025$140,00026
Diluted shares306.8M319.5M406.8M520.2M569.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.01
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $0.33 of net worth that earned you $0.01 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-179% avg · 5y
FY21 -56%FY22 -459%FY23 -227%FY24 —FY25 26%

It earned an average -179% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+86% shares · 5y

Share count is up 86% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 421% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001104 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-104299 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040494 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004225 (Revenues)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-053942 (Revenues)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001104 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-104299 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040494 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004225 (NetIncomeLoss)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-053942 (NetIncomeLoss)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001104 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-104299 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040494 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004225 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-053942 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001104 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-104299 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004225 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-22-001104 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-104299 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040494 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  22. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004225 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  23. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-104299 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-040494 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-004225 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  26. 20-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-053942 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)