MeritValue

TAYLOR DEVICES, INC.

TAYDdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TAYLOR DEVICES, INC. earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.53 and $16.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$22.5M1$30.9M2$40.2M3$44.6M4$46.3M4
Net income$1.06M5$2.24M6$6.29M7$9M8$9.41M8
Operating cash flow$7.03M9$3.31M10$7.71M11$13.2M12$7.47M12
Capital expenditure$1.62M13$1.39M14$3.36M15$1.15M16$2.6M16
Free cash flow (derived)$5.41M9$1.92M10$4.35M11$12.1M12$4.87M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20.6M17$22.5M18$3.58M19$2.83M20$1.19M20
Diluted shares3.5M3.5M4.1M4.2M4.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$147.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $147.85 of net worth that earned you $22.43 and generated $11.6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 11%FY23 14%FY24 19%FY25 15%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.53 and $16.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.87M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$16.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.87M
Earnings Power Value
$15.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.29M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $16.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.86
Base0.0%$16.86
Bull5.0%$20.88

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000096536-22-000019 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001376474-23-000411 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001376474-24-000456 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001376474-25-000751 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000096536-22-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001376474-23-000411 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001376474-24-000456 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001376474-25-000751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000096536-22-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001376474-23-000411 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001376474-24-000456 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001376474-25-000751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000096536-22-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001376474-23-000411 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001376474-24-000456 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001376474-25-000751 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-05-31 · accession 0000096536-22-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-05-31 · accession 0001376474-23-000411 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-05-31 · accession 0001376474-24-000456 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-05-31 · accession 0001376474-25-000751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)