MeritValue

MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO

TAP-Adata completeness 100%22 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO earns about 1% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.4B1$12.8B2$13.9B3$13.7B3$13B3
Net income$1.01B4−$175.3M5$948.9M6$1.12B6−$2.14B6
Operating cash flow$1.57B7$1.5B8$2.08B9$1.91B9$1.78B9
Capital expenditure$522.6M10$661.4M11$671.5M12$674.1M12$716.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.05B7$840.6M8$1.41B9$1.24B9$1.07B9
Total debt$14.8B13$13.5B14$13.3B15$12.3B16$15B16
Cash & equivalents$637.4M17$600M18$868.9M19$969.3M20$896.5M20
Diluted shares217.6M216.9M217.3M209.9M199.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$513.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$107.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$751.09

10 shares is a claim on $513.83 of net worth that earned you −$107.46 and generated $53.63 of cash last year, against $751.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 1%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 -8%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)