MeritValue

MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO

TAPdata completeness 100%22 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE CO earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.72 and $51.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.4B1$12.8B2$13.9B3$13.7B3$13B3
Net income$1.01B4−$175.3M5$948.9M6$1.12B6−$2.14B6
Operating cash flow$1.57B7$1.5B8$2.08B9$1.91B9$1.78B9
Capital expenditure$522.6M10$661.4M11$671.5M12$674.1M12$716.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.05B7$840.6M8$1.41B9$1.24B9$1.07B9
Total debt$14.8B13$13.5B14$13.3B15$12.3B16$15B16
Cash & equivalents$637.4M17$600M18$868.9M19$969.3M20$896.5M20
Diluted shares217.6M216.9M217.3M209.9M199.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$513.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$107.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$53.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$751.09

10 shares is a claim on $513.83 of net worth that earned you −$107.46 and generated $53.63 of cash last year, against $751.09 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 1%FY23 4%FY24 5%FY25 -8%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.72 and $51.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$51.22
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.6%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$39.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.6%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
Earnings Power Value
$48.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$948.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.6%
Discount rate (WACC)9.08%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $39.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$16.17
Base5.6%$39.72
Bull10.6%$65.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000024545-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000024545-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000024545-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000024545-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)