MeritValue

TANTECH HOLDINGS LTD

TANHdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

TANTECH HOLDINGS LTD earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 1233% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.5 and $46.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55.3M1$53M2$44.6M3$42.9M3$38.4M3
Net income−$8.36M4$2.59M5$5.58M6−$3.24M6−$31M6
Operating cash flow−$8.09M7$8.29M8$5.26M9$5.36M9−$5.82M9
Capital expenditure$220,30810$1,57111$43112$80,52512$012
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.31M7$8.29M8$5.26M9$5.28M9−$5.82M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$43.1M13$19M14$29.1M15$35.2M16$33M16
Diluted shares172,86425,15469,186423,1742.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$479
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$134.66
Free cash flow it threw off
−$25.25
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $479 of net worth that earned you −$134.66 and generated −$25.25 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -8%FY22 4%FY23 7%FY24 0%FY25 -34%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1233% shares · 5y

Share count is up 1233% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.5 and $46.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$44.5
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.26M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$46.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$5.26M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $46.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$46.95
Base0.0%$46.95
Bull5.0%$54.85

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-003629 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-006862 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-003132 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-006862 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-003132 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-003629 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-006862 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-003132 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-003629 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-006862 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-003132 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001477932-23-003017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001477932-24-003629 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001477932-25-006862 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001477932-26-003132 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)