MeritValue

TALOS ENERGY INC.

TALOdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

TALOS ENERGY INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 114% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.24B1$1.65B2$1.46B3$1.97B3$1.78B3
Net income−$183M4$381.9M5$187.3M6−$76.4M6−$494.3M6
Operating cash flow$411.4M7$709.7M8$519.1M9$962.6M9$935.8M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.93B10$1.17B11$2.05B12$2.44B13$2.45B13
Cash & equivalents$69.9M14$44.1M15$33.6M16$108.2M17$362.8M17
Diluted shares81.8M83.7M120.8M175.6M175.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$28.22
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$140.03

10 shares is a claim on $123.79 of net worth that earned you −$28.22 last year, against $140.03 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -2%FY22 22%FY23 7%FY24 2%FY25 -8%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+114% shares · 5y

Share count is up 114% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 27% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-125528 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028223 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067807 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-125528 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028223 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067807 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-125528 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028223 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067807 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005278 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-125528 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028223 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067807 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005278 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-125528 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028223 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-067807 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)