TAL Education Group
TALdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileTAL Education Group earns about -0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 10% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $34.22 and $36.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.39B1 | $1.02B2 | $1.49B3 | $2.25B3 | $3.01B3 |
| Net income | −$1.14B4 | −$135.6M5 | −$3.57M6 | $84.6M6 | $530.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$939.2M7 | $7.36M8 | $306.2M9 | $397.9M9 | $601.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $246.3M10 | $110.3M11 | $112.7M12 | $111.7M12 | $93.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$1.19B7 | −$103M8 | $193.4M9 | $286.2M9 | $508.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.64B13 | $2.02B14 | $2.21B15 | $1.77B16 | $1.52B16 |
| Diluted shares | 214.8M | 212.6M | 203.3M | 205.2M | 192.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $195.64 of net worth that earned you $27.51 and generated $26.35 of cash last year.
It earned about -0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 10% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $34.22 and $36.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$286.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$286.2M
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $29.09 |
| Base | 5.0% | $34.22 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $40.36 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001104659-24-067123 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001410578-25-001415 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001104659-26-073410 (Revenues)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001104659-24-067123 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001410578-25-001415 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001104659-26-073410 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001104659-24-067123 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001410578-25-001415 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001104659-26-073410 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001104659-24-067123 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001410578-25-001415 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001104659-26-073410 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-02-28 · accession 0001410578-23-001399 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-02-28 · accession 0001104659-24-067123 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-02-29 · accession 0001410578-25-001415 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2025-02-28 · accession 0001104659-26-073410 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)