MeritValue

AT&T INC.

Tdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AT&T INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.3 and $21.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$134B1$120.7B2$122.4B3$122.3B3$125.6B3
Net income$20.1B4−$8.52B5$14.4B6$10.9B6$22B6
Operating cash flow$42B7$35.8B8$38.3B9$38.8B9$40.3B9
Capital expenditure$15.5B10$19.6B11$17.9B12$20.3B12$20.8B12
Free cash flow (derived)$26.4B7$16.2B8$20.5B9$18.5B9$19.4B9
Total debt$198.7B13$141.5B14$145B15$127.2B16$143.7B16
Cash & equivalents$19.2B17$3.7B18$6.72B18$3.3B18$18.2B18
Diluted shares7.50B7.59B7.26B7.20B7.18B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$176.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$200.21

10 shares is a claim on $176.2 of net worth that earned you $30.58 and generated $27.08 of cash last year, against $200.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 1%FY23 8%FY24 5%FY25 9%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.3 and $21.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$18.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$21.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$19.4B
Earnings Power Value
$20.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $21.21
The three cases
Bear0.0%$21.21
Base0.0%$21.21
Bull5.0%$30.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732717-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732717-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732717-26-000120 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732717-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732717-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732717-26-000120 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732717-22-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732717-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732717-26-000120 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732717-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732717-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732717-26-000120 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732717-23-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732717-24-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000732717-25-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000732717-26-000120 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000732717-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000732717-26-000120 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)