MeritValue

SYSCO CORP

SYYdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

SYSCO CORP earns about 169% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $38.2 and $122.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$68.6B1$76.3B2$78.8B3$81.4B3$84.6B3
Net income$1.36B4$1.77B5$1.96B6$1.83B6$1.76B6
Operating cash flow$1.79B7$2.87B8$2.99B9$2.51B9$2.64B9
Capital expenditure$633M10$793M11$832M12$906M12$700M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.16B7$2.08B8$2.16B9$1.6B9$1.94B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$867M13$745M14$696M15$1.07B15$1.79B15
Diluted shares514.0M509.7M503.1M489.8M480.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$55.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$40.32
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $55.47 of net worth that earned you $36.56 and generated $40.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
169% avg · 5y
FY22 170%FY23 108%FY24 128%FY25 241%FY26 200%

It earned about 169% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $38.2 and $122.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$122.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.6%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$1.94B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$94.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.6%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.6%
  • fcfBase$1.94B
Earnings Power Value
$38.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.6%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.77B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.37
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.92%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $94.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$61.42
Base10.6%$94.24
Bull15.6%$114.49

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000096021-24-000128 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000096021-25-000099 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000096021-26-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000096021-24-000128 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000096021-25-000099 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000096021-26-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000096021-24-000128 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000096021-25-000099 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000096021-26-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000096021-24-000128 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000096021-25-000099 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000096021-26-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-02 · accession 0000096021-24-000128 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-01 · accession 0000096021-25-000099 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000096021-26-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)