MeritValue

Spyre Therapeutics, Inc.

SYREdata completeness 75%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Spyre Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -141% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 2873% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.7M1$2.33M2$886,0003$03$03
Net income−$65.8M4−$83.8M5−$338.8M6−$208M6−$155.2M6
Operating cash flow−$53.7M7−$80.1M8−$99.9M9−$157.4M9−$169.3M9
Capital expenditure$573,00010$38,00011$011$011—
Free cash flow (derived)−$54.3M7−$80.2M8−$99.9M9−$157.4M9—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$15.1M12$34.9M13$188.9M14$89.4M14$85.7M14
Diluted shares2.6M3.4M6.9M60.3M78.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$91.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$19.85
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $91.47 of net worth that earned you −$19.85 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-141% avg · 5y
FY21 -75%FY22 -429%FY23 —FY24 -38%FY25 -19%

It earned an average -141% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2873% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2873% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636282-24-000107 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636282-25-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001636282-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636282-24-000107 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636282-25-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001636282-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636282-24-000107 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636282-25-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001636282-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001636282-24-000107 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636282-25-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005705 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001636282-25-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001636282-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)