MeritValue

SYNAPTICS Inc

SYNAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SYNAPTICS Inc earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.54 and $20.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.34B1$1.74B2$1.36B3$959.4M3$1.07B3
Net income$79.6M4$257.5M5$73.6M6$125.6M6−$47.8M6
Operating cash flow$319.2M7$462.7M8$331.5M9$135.9M9$142M9
Capital expenditure$21.1M10$31.1M11$34.2M12$33.8M12$25.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$298.1M7$431.6M8$297.3M9$102.1M9$116.2M9
Total debt$394.4M13$1.98B14$1.97B15$1.95B16$1.67B16
Cash & equivalents$836.3M17$824M18$924.7M19$876.9M20$391.5M20
Diluted shares38.3M40.740.2M39.7M39.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$354.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$29.57
Debt you’d be carrying
$424.83

10 shares is a claim on $354.94 of net worth that earned you −$12.16 and generated $29.57 of cash last year, against $424.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 12%FY23 5%FY24 -2%FY25 -3%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 323% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.54 and $20.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$116.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.72
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$116.2M
Earnings Power Value
$20.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$79.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.72
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.72
Base0.0%$9.72
Bull5.0%$19.95

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-26 · accession 0000950170-23-043521 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-25 · accession 0000950170-24-100261 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-24 · accession 0000817720-25-000073 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-26 · accession 0000950170-23-043521 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-25 · accession 0000950170-24-100261 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-24 · accession 0000817720-25-000073 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-26 · accession 0000950170-23-043521 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-25 · accession 0000950170-24-100261 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-24 · accession 0000817720-25-000073 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-26 · accession 0000950170-23-043521 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-25 · accession 0000950170-24-100261 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-24 · accession 0000817720-25-000073 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-26 · accession 0000950170-22-017628 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-25 · accession 0000950170-23-043521 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-24 · accession 0000950170-24-100261 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000817720-25-000073 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-26 · accession 0000950170-22-017628 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-25 · accession 0000950170-23-043521 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-24 · accession 0000950170-24-100261 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-29 · accession 0000817720-25-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)