MeritValue

Symbotic Inc.

SYMdata completeness 75%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Symbotic Inc. earns about -7304% on equity, but has diluted owners by 101% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$593.3M1$1.18B2$1.79B2$2.25B2
Net income−$6.48M3−$6.86M4−$23.9M5−$13.5M5−$16.9M5
Operating cash flow−$3.38M6−$148.2M7$230.8M8−$58.1M8$866.9M8
Capital expenditure—$18M9$15.7M9$42.2M9—
Free cash flow (derived)—−$166.2M7$215.1M8−$100.3M8—
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$812,88410$353.5M11$258.8M12$727.3M12$1.24B12
Diluted shares—54.1M64.3M95.7M108.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.56
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $20.37 of net worth that earned you −$1.56 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-7304% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -96%FY23 -29105%FY24 -7%FY25 -8%

It earned an average -7304% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+101% shares · 5y

Share count is up 101% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001837240-24-000232 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001837240-25-000278 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-082751 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001837240-24-000232 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001837240-25-000278 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-082751 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001837240-24-000232 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001837240-25-000278 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001837240-24-000232 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-082751 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-24 · accession 0001837240-24-000232 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001837240-25-000278 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)