MeritValue

STRYKER CORP

SYKdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STRYKER CORP earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $80.25 and $194.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.1B1$18.4B2$20.5B3$22.6B3$25.1B3
Net income$1.99B4$2.36B5$3.17B6$2.99B6$3.25B6
Operating cash flow$3.26B7$2.62B8$3.71B9$4.24B9$5.04B9
Capital expenditure$525M10$588M11$575M12$755M12$761M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.74B7$2.04B8$3.14B9$3.49B9$4.28B9
Total debt$12.5B13$13B14$13B15$13.6B16$15.9B16
Cash & equivalents$2.94B17$1.84B18$2.97B19$3.65B20$4.01B20
Diluted shares382.3M382.2M383.7M385.6M386.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$580.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$83.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$110.82
Debt you’d be carrying
$410.32

10 shares is a claim on $580.08 of net worth that earned you $83.98 and generated $110.82 of cash last year, against $410.32 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 10%FY23 12%FY24 11%FY25 11%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 27% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $80.25 and $194.01 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$194.01
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.4%
  • fcfBase$3.49B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$154.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.4%
  • fcfBase$3.49B
Earnings Power Value
$80.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.99B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$104.71
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $154.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$98.25
Base8.4%$154.07
Bull13.4%$196.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310764-24-000024 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310764-25-000023 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310764-26-000010 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310764-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310764-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310764-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310764-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310764-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310764-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310764-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310764-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310764-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310764-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310764-24-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310764-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000310764-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000310764-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000310764-24-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000310764-25-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000310764-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)