Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc.

SYBTdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Stock Yards Bancorp, Inc. earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.84 and $167.91 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$177.1M1$251.7M2$346.7M3$412.9M3$467.6M3
Net income$74.6M4$93.3M5$107.7M6$114.5M6$140.2M6
Operating cash flow$102.1M7$108.7M8$106.7M9$142.9M9$166M9
Capital expenditure$4.58M10$18.4M11$7.73M12$9.85M12$12M12
Free cash flow (derived)$97.5M7$90.3M8$99M9$133M9$154M9
Total debt$26.3M13$26.7M14$26.8M15$26.8M16
Cash & equivalents
Diluted shares25.2M28.9M29.3M29.4M29.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$364.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$47.5
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$9.08

10 shares is a claim on $364.56 of net worth that earned you $47.5 and generated $52.19 of cash last year, against $9.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 14%FY23 21%FY24 33%FY25 34%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.84 and $167.91 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$167.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.8%
  • fcfBase$133M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$114.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.8%
  • fcfBase$133M
Earnings Power Value
$37.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$107.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.42
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $114.16
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.5
Base13.8%$114.16
Bull18.8%$139.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005669 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005393 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005830 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005669 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005393 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005830 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005669 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005393 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005830 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005669 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005393 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005830 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004492 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005669 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005393 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005830 (LongTermDebt)