MeritValue

SunCoke Energy, Inc.

SXCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SunCoke Energy, Inc. earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.03 and $6.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.46B1$1.97B2$2.06B3$1.94B3$1.84B3
Net income$43.4M4$100.7M5$57.5M6$95.9M6−$44.2M6
Operating cash flow$233.1M7$208.9M8$249M9$168.8M9$109.1M9
Capital expenditure$98.6M10$75.5M11$109.2M12$72.9M12$66.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$134.5M7$133.4M8$139.8M9$95.9M9$42.3M9
Total debt$1.23B13$1.06B14$980.6M15$984.6M16$1.37B16
Cash & equivalents$63.8M17$90M18$140.1M19$189.6M20$88.7M20
Diluted shares83.7M84.6M84.9M85.3M85.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$69.86
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.95
Debt you’d be carrying
$160.35

10 shares is a claim on $69.86 of net worth that earned you −$5.17 and generated $4.95 of cash last year, against $160.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 8%FY23 6%FY24 7%FY25 -3%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 12% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.03 and $6.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$95.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$95.9M
Earnings Power Value
$6.97
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$57.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.03
Base0.0%$1.03
Bull5.0%$4.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514705-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514705-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514705-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514705-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514705-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514705-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514705-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514705-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514705-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514705-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514705-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514705-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514705-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514705-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514705-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001514705-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001514705-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001514705-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001514705-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001514705-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)