MeritValue

SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC.

SWKSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $65.66 and $634.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.11B1$5.49B2$4.77B3$4.18B3$4.09B3
Net income$1.5B4$1.28B5$982.8M6$596M6$477.1M6
Operating cash flow$1.77B7$1.42B8$1.86B9$1.82B9$1.3B9
Capital expenditure$637.8M10$489.4M11$210.3M12$157M12$195M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.13B7$935.2M8$1.65B9$1.67B9$1.11B9
Total debt$2.24B13$2.19B14$1.29B15$994.3M16$995.8M16
Cash & equivalents$882.9M17$566M17$718.8M18$1.37B19$1.16B19
Diluted shares167.0M163.3M160.3M161.5M155.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$371.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$30.76
Free cash flow it threw off
$71.3
Debt you’d be carrying
$64.2

10 shares is a claim on $371.19 of net worth that earned you $30.76 and generated $71.3 of cash last year, against $64.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 19%FY23 16%FY24 10%FY25 9%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 55% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $65.66 and $634.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$634.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.65B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$347.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.65B
Earnings Power Value
$65.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$982.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$50.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $347.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$152.71
Base20.0%$347.09
Bull20.0%$347.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0000004127-23-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000004127-24-000131 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0000004127-25-000085 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0000004127-23-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000004127-24-000131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0000004127-25-000085 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0000004127-23-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000004127-24-000131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0000004127-25-000085 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0000004127-23-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000004127-24-000131 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0000004127-25-000085 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0000004127-22-000038 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000004127-23-000030 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0000004127-24-000131 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0000004127-25-000085 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-01 · accession 0000004127-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-29 · accession 0000004127-24-000131 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-27 · accession 0000004127-25-000085 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)