MeritValue

STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC.

SWKdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.42 and $224.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$15.3B1$16.9B2$15.8B3$15.4B3$15.1B3
Net income$1.69B4$1.06B5−$310.5M6$294.3M6$401.9M6
Operating cash flow$663.1M7−$1.46B8$1.19B9$1.11B9$971.2M9
Capital expenditure$519.1M10$530.4M11$338.7M12$353.9M12$283.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$144M7−$1.99B8$852.6M9$753M9$687.9M9
Total debt$11B13$12.8B14$13.3B15$12.2B16$11.1B16
Cash & equivalents$142.1M17$395.6M18$449.4M19$290.5M20$280.1M20
Diluted shares165.0M156.6M149.8M151.3M151.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$596.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$732.29

10 shares is a claim on $596.18 of net worth that earned you $26.46 and generated $45.29 of cash last year, against $732.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY22 8%FY22 2%FY23 1%FY24 4%FY26 5%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.42 and $224.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$224.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$753M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$90.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$753M
Earnings Power Value
$27.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$401.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$59.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $90.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$0.55
Base20.0%$90.26
Bull20.0%$90.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000093556-24-000032 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093556-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000093556-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000093556-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093556-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000093556-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000093556-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093556-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000093556-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000093556-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093556-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000093556-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000093556-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093556-24-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000093556-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000093556-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000093556-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093556-24-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000093556-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000093556-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)