MeritValue

Latham Group, Inc.

SWIMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Latham Group, Inc. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.13 and $16.42 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$630.5M1$695.7M2$566.5M3$508.5M3$545.9M3
Net income−$62.3M4−$5.69M5−$2.39M6−$17.9M6$11.1M6
Operating cash flow$33.7M7$32.3M8$116.4M9$61.3M9$63.4M9
Capital expenditure$25M10$39.7M11$33.2M12$20.1M12$25.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.72M7−$7.38M8$83.2M9$41.2M9$38M9
Total debt$560.8M13$625.8M14$602.4M15$563M16$559.7M16
Cash & equivalents$44M17$32.6M18$102.8M18$56.4M18$71M18
Diluted shares110.6M113.2M112.9M115.4M119.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$33.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.18
Debt you’d be carrying
$46.71

10 shares is a claim on $33.87 of net worth that earned you $0.93 and generated $3.18 of cash last year, against $46.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
0% avg · 5y
FY21 -3%FY22 2%FY23 2%FY24 -1%FY25 1%

It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.13 and $16.42 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.42
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$2.62
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.83
Base20.0%$7.13
Bull20.0%$7.13

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002212 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001833197-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002212 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001833197-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002212 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001833197-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002212 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001833197-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-003042 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002212 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001833197-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002212 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001833197-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)