SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.

SWBIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5,326.1 and $8,504.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$864.1M1$479.2M2$535.8M3$474.7M3$523.8M3
Net income$194.5M4$36.9M5$41.4M6$13.4M6$18.5M6
Operating cash flow$137.8M7$16.7M8$106.7M9−$7.22M9$114.2M9
Capital expenditure$24M10$89.6M11$90.8M12$21.6M12$23.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$113.8M7−$72.8M8$16M9−$28.8M9$90.4M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$120.7M13$53.6M14$60.8M15$25.2M16$28.2M16
Diluted shares47.7M46,17046,24844,93244,933

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$83,804.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4,113.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$20,129.3
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $83,804.55 of net worth that earned you $4,113.01 and generated $20,129.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY22 81%FY23 11%FY24 12%FY25 4%FY26 5%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5,326.1 and $8,504.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5,326.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5,708.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$16M
Earnings Power Value
$8,504.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$278.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5,708.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5,708.68
Base0.0%$5,708.68
Bull5.0%$6,938.6

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-23-029412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)