SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC.
SWBIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
SMITH & WESSON BRANDS, INC. earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $5,326.1 and $8,504.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $864.1M1 | $479.2M2 | $535.8M3 | $474.7M3 | $523.8M3 |
| Net income | $194.5M4 | $36.9M5 | $41.4M6 | $13.4M6 | $18.5M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $137.8M7 | $16.7M8 | $106.7M9 | −$7.22M9 | $114.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $24M10 | $89.6M11 | $90.8M12 | $21.6M12 | $23.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $113.8M7 | −$72.8M8 | $16M9 | −$28.8M9 | $90.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $120.7M13 | $53.6M14 | $60.8M15 | $25.2M16 | $28.2M16 |
| Diluted shares | 47.7M | 46,170 | 46,248 | 44,932 | 44,933 |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $83,804.55 of net worth that earned you $4,113.01 and generated $20,129.3 of cash last year.
It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5,326.1 and $8,504.54 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$16M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$16M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$36.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $5,708.68 |
| Base | 0.0% | $5,708.68 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $6,938.6 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000950170-23-029412 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000950170-24-075584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000950170-25-088157 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0001193125-26-274254 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)