Smurfit Westrock plc
SWdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Smurfit Westrock plc earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 102% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.95 and $47.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.5B1 | $12.1B2 | $21.1B2 | $31.2B2 |
| Net income | $1.03B3 | $825M4 | $319M4 | $699M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $1.43B5 | $1.56B6 | $1.48B6 | $3.39B6 |
| Capital expenditure | $930M7 | $929M8 | $1.47B8 | $2.19B8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $503M5 | $630M6 | $17M6 | $1.2B6 |
| Total debt | — | $78M9 | $14.1B10 | $13.6B11 |
| Cash & equivalents | $841M12 | $1B13 | $855M14 | $892M14 |
| Diluted shares | 261.0M | 260.0M | 389.0M | 526.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $348.42 of net worth that earned you $13.29 and generated $22.81 of cash last year, against $257.97 of debt.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 102% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 17296% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.95 and $47.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$630M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$630M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$762M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | −$6.99 |
| Base | 20.0% | $14.95 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $14.95 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (DebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (LongTermDebt)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002005951-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012555 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)