MeritValue

Savers Value Village, Inc.

SVVdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Savers Value Village, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$1.2B1$1.44B2$1.5B3$1.54B3$1.68B3
Net income$83.4M4$84.7M5$53.1M6$29M6$22.6M6
Operating cash flow$175.8M7$169.4M8$175.2M9$134.3M9$167.3M9
Capital expenditure$40.5M10$110.2M11$91.7M12$105.9M12$118.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$135.2M7$59.3M8$83.4M9$28.4M9$48.6M9
Total debt—$833.6M13$1.61B14$741.1M15$1.45B15
Cash & equivalents$97.9M16$112.1M17$180M18$150M19$85.9M19
Diluted shares145.4M146.0M156.2M166.7M162.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$26.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$88.81

10 shares is a claim on $26.76 of net worth that earned you $1.39 and generated $2.99 of cash last year, against $88.81 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY22 28%FY22 4%FY23 -2%FY24 3%FY26 1%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+12% shares · 5y

Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 73% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$48.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$48.6M
Earnings Power Value
$3.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$53.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001883313-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001883313-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001883313-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001883313-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001883313-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001883313-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001883313-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001883313-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883313-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001883313-26-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001883313-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001883313-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001883313-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)