MeritValue

Savara Inc

SVRAdata completeness 88%29 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Savara Inc earns about -30% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 66% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$43M1−$38.2M2−$54.7M3−$95.9M4−$118.8M4
Operating cash flow−$40.1M5−$34.6M6−$51.1M7−$89.1M8−$101M8
Capital expenditure$57,0009$9,00010$296,00011$25,00012$22,00012
Free cash flow (derived)−$40.1M5−$34.6M6−$51.4M7−$89.1M8−$101.1M8
Total debt$51.3M13$52.2M14$52.7M15$53.2M16$59.8M16
Cash & equivalents$34M17$52.1M18$26.6M19$15.1M20$33.2M20
Diluted shares133.9M152.8M165.2M198.2M222.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.34
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.69

10 shares is a claim on $9.13 of net worth that earned you −$5.34 and generated −$4.54 of cash last year, against $2.69 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-30% avg · 5y
FY21 -21%FY22 -28%FY23 -26%FY24 -36%FY25 -41%

It earned an average -30% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+66% shares · 5y

Share count is up 66% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 17% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010967 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027920 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045731 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105076 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010967 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027920 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045731 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105076 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010967 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027920 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045731 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105076 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010967 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027920 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045731 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105076 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010967 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-027920 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-045731 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105076 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)