MeritValue

SILVERCORP METALS INC

SVMdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SILVERCORP METALS INC earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.73 and $7.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$192.1M1$217.9M2$208.1M3$215.2M4$298.9M4
Net income$46.4M5$30.6M6$20.6M7$36.3M8$58.2M8
Operating cash flow$85.9M9$107.4M10$85.6M11$91.6M12$138.6M12
Capital expenditure$8.97M13$10.7M14$13.3M15$11.5M15$6.22M16
Free cash flow (derived)$76.9M9$96.6M10$72.4M11$80M12$132.4M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$118.7M17$113.3M18$145.7M19$152.9M19$364M19
Diluted shares175.7M177.1M176.9M177.0M217.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$32.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.08
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $32.27 of net worth that earned you $2.67 and generated $6.08 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 14%FY23 10%FY24 14%FY25 24%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+24% shares · 5y

Share count is up 24% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.73 and $7.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$80M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.3%
  • fcfBase$80M
Earnings Power Value
$1.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.51
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.92
Base1.3%$7.24
Bull6.3%$8.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001176256-22-000187 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001176256-23-000109 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001176256-24-000060 (Revenue)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001176256-25-000052 (Revenue)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001176256-22-000187 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001176256-23-000109 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001176256-24-000060 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001176256-25-000052 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001176256-22-000187 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001176256-23-000109 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001176256-24-000060 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-03-31 · accession 0001176256-25-000052 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001176256-22-000187 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001176256-23-000109 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001176256-24-000060 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2025-03-31 · accession 0001176256-25-000052 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-03-31 · accession 0001176256-23-000109 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-03-31 · accession 0001176256-24-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-03-31 · accession 0001176256-25-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalents)